I’m going to publish an article on this for my website and newsletter subscribers. For Quora, I will simplify.

I will consult the charts on LookIntoBitcoin. MVRZ, HODL wave, and The Puell Multiple correlate certain events to ultimate peaks in the market. Like, not the 40–50% pulldowns you get now and then, but those huge, catastrophic +80% crashes. Until those events trigger, I will HODL and buy more. A 40% drop doesn’t phase me.

I do not plan to take any profits until then. In fact, I won’t even think about exit until I notice lots of greedy people are coming into the cryptocurrency markets, trying to make a quick buck or profit from everybody else’s interest in making a quick buck off.

Like, LOTS of people—friends, family, coworkers, old people, seemingly everybody, particularly people who never seemed to care about it.

For example, when people who used to ask me “should I buy some bitcoin?” start telling me they finally bought some bitcoin. Or if visits to my website or sales of my books start going up a lot for seemingly no reason. That’s a good indication something’s brewing, and I might want to start moving money out of bitcoin.

One big signal will come from mainstream media. Once prominent news outlets start publishing stories that are positive for cryptocurrency, that will tell me those greedy people are coming back. These guys publish what gets clicks and eyeballs. They’re not going to cover bitcoin until they can profit off of general interest in it, and once there’s general interest around bitcoin, that means a lot more money’s coming into the markets and it doesn’t plan to stick around. That money doesn’t care about me or bitcoin, it just wants to make a quick buck.

So, it’s all about looking for those types of signals. At that point, I’ll consult the charts linked above and whatever other data science models I can find. Once those triggers hit, I’m going to sell 90% of all my bitcoin. I plan to sell three equal bunches over three days. If the remaining 10% goes way up, I’ll sell even more.

The year will not matter. If that happens after 2021, it’s cool.

Bitcoin is my stake in the financial networks of the future and insurance against a collapse in the banking sector. There’s no way I’m selling simply to make money. Bitcoin IS my money.

But, as I said before, once all those greedy people come into the market, big institutional investors and HODLers will sell, crash the markets, and take my family’s money with them. We have so much data confirming that pattern, it’s not even a question in my mind. They’re going to pull the rug out from under everybody.

I’m a true believer, not a dumb believer, and I’m certainly not going to get left holding the bag.

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Mark Helfman is a top writer on Medium for cryptocurrency, finance, and bitcoin topics. His book, Consensusland, explores the social, cultural, and business challenges of a fictional country that runs on cryptocurrency. In a past life, he worked for U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Check out CryptoGlobe 360° space.